“– It is very likely that human activities have caused most of the Global Warming observed since 1950 – “   [Quote from CSIRO/BOM State of the Climate Report]

World wide reports on Climate Change by scientists have been sympathetic to their own government’s economic policies. Perhaps the time has come to call a ‘spade a spade’ and less of applying economy of truth in areas of political sensitivity.

CSIRO has a great track record for scientific research in the past. There is a need to know the extent of human intervention that has caused a twofold increase in CO₂ gasses since 1950.

 The well-being of our future generations, perhaps their very existence, will depend on how the present generation deals with the problem of creating a sustainable balance between CO₂ emission and dispersal.  This has a potential threat greater than the Ozone Hole phenomenon that was the focus of attention a few years ago.

Since 1950 rapid increase in human population and change of travel habits has led to greater usage of airplanes for trips longer than a few 100 kilometres. Boeing and later Airbus collectively introduced thousands of large jumbo and super–jumbo jet airplanes for flights into the upper edge of the atmosphere.

 This mode of travel will rapidly increase in the future. India has said she is in the market for 1040 super jumbo-jets over the next 20 yeas.  At an altitude of 40.000 feet, jet commercial flights spew out large quantities of CO₂ and other greenhouse gasses from exhausts all along their flight paths.

 Great savings can be made by flying in the stratosphere – 70% savings on fuel and 70% reduction in greenhouse emissions._.

The problem is with no vegetation and seas the carbon dioxide, although heavier than the surrounding air, cannot condense and pass through the tropopause barrier to enter the earth’s atmosphere and disperse in the normal way. The result is a gradual build-up of CO₂ representing a major factor to be taken into consideration by CSIRO if Climate Change is to be fully evaluated and controlled.

Air transport currently contributes two per cent of all man-made CO₂ emissions – 80 per cent of which are related to passenger flights exceeding 1,500 km. The global aviation sector is expanding at a rapid pace, with passenger demand doubling every 15 years. By 2050, the industry could be handling some 16 billion travellers and 400 million tonnes of cargo annually.

Surely, the time has come for some answers, and world government incentives to counter the imbalance of nature created by the human race. ?

 Patrick Stacey,Maleny Weather Station – March 2012

Past Week’s Weather March 12 – 18

Home

The synoptic weather pattern for the whole week has shown a ridge of high pressure up the east coast extending from a high  in the Tasman Sea. This resulted in south-easterly winds bringing a series of isolated showers over the Ranges. It has rained every day with some moderate falls. They were unlike normal showers separated and independent of one another. By the time the showers arrived on the Ranges they had joined up to give the appearance of a belt of rain in a north-west cloudband.

Total rainfall for the week was 136.8mmm bringing the total for the month to 375.2mm, representing 80mm above average for the month of March.

There is likelihood in the latter half of next week for a low in the monsoonal belt to move down the east coast and become a deep East Coast Low off Fraser Island.

One Long Range Forecast module shows rain events originating in the tropics are likely to move south  during 23 March to 27 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 13 April to 17 April.

Overseas

Much of southern and eastern England is officially in a state of drought, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has announced.  In parts of south-east England groundwater levels are lower than in the infamously dry summer of 1976’ Tough water restrictions have been issued for 20 million UK residents in light of worsening drought in England. The restrictions, including a “hosepipe ban” on a range of outdoor water usage, follow two years of low rainfall that has left reservoirs at record low volumes, No fewer than seven water companies, serving London and, more broadly, the South and East of England, have taken the drastic measures, which will take effect on April 5. This action has followed combined fall/winter rainfall of only 62 to 75 percent of normal within the region’s key watersheds.

Temperature records in USA continue to be shattered across the eastern two-thirds of the nation as a March mini heat wave bulges eastward. In general, places farther north will have the largest departures from normal. Numerous daily temperature records continued to be broken across the country on Monday as the warmth spread eastward. Many locations from Florida to North Dakota to Maine have experienced record breaking maximum temperatures.

Home and Away

Home

At the beginning of the week an upper level trough over the Blackall ranges interacted with a low level unstable air mass. Thunder was heard at 10.00am Monday. The synoptic weather pattern was slow moving and took three days to clear the Ranges and move out to sea.  Rainfall was continuous with some moderate falls causing flash flooding, road closures, potholes and aquaplaning of vehicles. Total rainfall for this rain spell was 238mm. On Wednesday the low level trough developed into an East Coast Low off Fraser Island. This phenomenon normally occurs at this time of year.  They are characterised by their small size and often extremely rapid development. Over the next few days the east coast low moved south off the coast bringing more rain to already saturated NSW areas.

 Overseas

 Severe thunderstorms led to one of the worst March tornado outbreaks in U.S. history.  120 tornadoes are reported to have left massive destruction in their wake across parts of the Midwest and Southeast. At least 39 people were killed in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Alabama, and Georgia. Hundreds of homes and businesses were destroyed in about a dozen states. The average number of tornadoes for the entire month of March is 80.

 In Madagascar, Tropical Storm ‘Irina’ skirted down the western coast, killing at least 73 people.  The storm also left more than 21,000 homeless. Tropical Cyclone ‘Giovanna’ struck Madagascar just a few weeks earlier, and ‘Irina’ destroyed roads and residences already weakened by the effects of ‘Giovanna’.

Four fatalities were reported in South Africa. In Durban, waves reached 3 m, closing beaches and forcing ships to remain in port.

 The deadly cold snap that has gripped Europe for more than a week strained emergency services, wrought travel chaos and claimed more lives, bringing to more than 300 the tally of victims. The homeless population has borne the brunt of the deaths, with dozens of transients freezing to death in unheated apartments, fire escapes or in makeshift street shelters.

With temperatures plunging as low as minus 40 Celsius, the grim winter toll also rose in other countries including Italy, Poland and Ukraine, where another nine deaths brought that country’s total fatalities to 131 – most of them homeless people who perished on the streets since the freeze started nine days ago, Ukraine’s emergencies ministry said.

The bitter cold front has engulfed much of Europe and even crossed the Mediterranean into north Africa, where as many as 16 people were killed on Algeria’s snow-slicked roads or in other weather-related accidents.

In Rome, Italy’s normally mild-weathered capital, the snow-covered city was virtually paralysed after black ice streaked the streets and snowed-in residents warned of food shortages.

The sun erupted with one of the largest solar flares this solar cycle on March 6

 Scientists  monitoring the impacts of solar storms say that such events are likely to become more frequent and more severe in the approach to the next peak in solar activity around 2013.  In association with the flare the sun has expelled a significant coronal mass ejection [CME] toward the earth at a speed of more than 600 miles second dumping solar particles and magnetic fields into the earth’s atmosphere. This has distorted Earth’s magnetic fields and triggered a temporary radio blackout and interfered with radio navigation and short wave radio.

Over the last few weeks the weakening of the current La Niña episode .has gained momentum.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau show a continued decline of the event, with a neutral ENSO state expected during autumn. While La Niña is clearly on the wane, waters around Australia remain warmer than normal, maintaining the potential for increased rainfall over the continent.

The first two weeks of February were mostly dry apart from one or two local showers and then the rains began. The month’s total rainfall at Maleny was 415mm, representing 83mm above the 119- year average. Rainfalls at adjacent weather stations of Nambour and Beerburrum over the same period were 489mm and 289mm respectively.

The February rains began when a series of surface troughs and upper level systems arrived over the Hinterland on a northwest cloudband bringing substantial falls of rain. A total of 330mm was recorded over five days, with the heaviest 24-hour rain of 144.2mm ending at 9.00am on Saturday 25th.

The mean temperature for the month was 21.7°C , representing one-half a degree below the norm. Maximum temperature was 30.7°C, on the 6th and minimum 17.2°C on the 5th.  Northeast was the dominant wind direction.  

The relative humidity range was from 60 – 98%, resulting in a massive mould cleaning exercise in many homes on the Ranges.