More rainfall is expected in north-east NSW as remnants of Cyclone Laurence move east.

The “Next Generation Forecast and Warning System” is underpinned by a set of forecast weather element grids, quality controlled by forecasters, for time intervals out to 7 days ahead.  Each weather element, for each time, is stored in the Australian Digital Forecast Database on a high-resolution 6 kilometre by 6 kilometre square grid and maps are generated for display in the new Forecast Explorer web interface. The first state to use this system is Victoria’, where the Bureau has been operating and evaluating a demonstration weather forecasting system since October 2008. The government, in its 2009/10 budget has announced funding of $30.5 million over five years to roll this revolutionary system out across all states in Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology report a mature El Niño conditions continue to dominate the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific remain at levels not seen since the El Niño events of 2002-03 and 1997-98, with values more than 2°C above normal in places along the equator. Leading climate models continue to suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds into the new year, though most indicate the El Niño will decline after the southern hemisphere summer.

Over the past fortnight, the Southern Oscillation Index has remained steady at levels typical of an El Niño event, while temperatures below the tropical Pacific Ocean surface have cooled slightly in central regions. However, Trade winds have weakened considerably over the same period, which may lead to some renewed warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The poor start to the northern wet season and the occurance of spring heatwaves are both typical impacts for an El Niño event. However, the influence of El Niño events on Australian rainfall typically declines by mid to late summer.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a reduced impact upon Australia over the summer months. The Bureau’s POAMA model suggests neutral IOD conditions may be present through autumn 2010.

Better forecasting on Emerald’s radar

The weather bureau says a new radar station being built in Emerald, in central Queensland, will help forecasters provide more accurate warnings.

Queensland Towns run short of Water

Residents in several Queensland towns, including Maleny, are being asked to restrict their water use because reservoirs are extremely low, and creeks have dried up.

The Bureau reports the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is −15; the monthly value for October was also −15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the trade winds during October, a pulse of average or stronger than average trade winds is developing in the western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern hemisphere summer.

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not been observed since the 2002 El Niño.The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is −15; the monthly value for October was also −15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid fall in value through October.Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the western Pacific.Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern hemisphere summer.

Adelaide’s extreme hot weather is now officially in the record books as the city’s first heatwave for November.There have been five days in a row above 35 degrees Celsius.Simon Timcke from the weather bureau says history was made before lunchtime today Nov 12″Shortly before 11 this morning we clicked over 35 degrees which makes it the first official heatwave in November in Adelaide,” he said.The previous hottest run was four consecutive days above 35 degrees in 1894.On Wednesday 26^th November 1997 heatwave conditions prevailed in Victoria and South Australia when hot desert winds moved south to blow away all previous November records. The hottest place at that time was Ceduna in SA with 46ºC, a November record. Likewise, Canberra was another record breaker with 38.9ºC. This heatwave was caused by a high pressure system in the Tasman Sea and a low pressure system to the west. Winds from both systems combined to bring a vortex of hot air drawn down from the north.

Highest Daily Maximum Temp. 46.3ºC at Birdsville on 4^th Dec.

…………………………………………………. (Maleny: 36.3ºC on 23^rd Feb)

Lowest Daily Minimum Temp. – 5.8ºC at Stanthorpe on 10^th Aug.

………………………………………………… (Maleny: 3.5ºC on 29^th July)

Highest Daily Rainfall ……………… 625 mm at Mackay on 15^th Feb.

………………………………………………. (Maleny: 123 mm on 2^nd June)

Highest Yearly Rainfall …………. 8489 mm at Bellenden Ker rain in 24 hours. (This location has been known to record 1140mm (3.74 feet) of rain in 24 hours)

……………………………………………….. (Maleny: 2312 mm)

8.10.09 Work to begin on weather radar. Work will start next month on a multi-million dollar weather radar near Tamworth. The Weather Bureau says it will fill a gap in its network for forecasting severe weather between Moree and Wagga Wagga. The New South Wales regional director, Barry Hanstrum, says the radar will help track thunderstorms within a 250 kilometre radius6.10.09.

 Sydney Hospital damaged By Hail. A hailstorm has caused several ceilings to collapse at a private hospital in Sydney’s north. The Mount Wilga Private Hospital says it has moved a number of patients after water started leaking into the hospital.  Emergency crews have set up a temporary power supply for the affected part of the hospital

Over 140 people may have been killed after giant waves hit the islands’ coastlines early on Wednesday morning following an 8.3-magnitude earthquake in the ocean south-west of American Samoa.