Maleny Weather

Two organisations, CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have combined to present a current picture of Australia’s climate. A summary of their report shows that Australia will be hotter in coming decades.
Australian average temperatures are projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.5 ºC by 2030. If global greenhouse gas emis¬sions continue to grow at rates consistent with past trends, warming is projected to be in the range of 2.2 to 5.0 ºC by 2070. Warming is projected to be lower near the coast and in Tasmania and higher in central and north-western Australia. These changes will be felt through an increase in the number of hot days.
Much of Australia will also be drier in coming decades. In Australia compared to the period 1981-2000, decreases in rainfall are likely in the decades to come in south¬ern areas of Australia during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and in south-west Western Australia during autumn. An increase in the number of dry days is expected across the country, but it is likely that there will be an increase in intense rainfall events in many areas.
It is very likely that human activities have caused most of the global warming observed since 1950
There is greater than 90% certainty that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have caused most of the global warming since the mid-20th century. International research shows that it is extremely unlikely that the observed warming could be explained by natural causes alone. Evidence of human influence has been detected in ocean warming, sea-level rise, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns. CSIRO research has shown that higher greenhouse gas levels are likely to have caused about half of the winter rainfall reduction in south-west Western Australia.
The observations clearly demonstrate that climate change is real. CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology will continue to provide observations and research so that Australia’s responses are underpinned by science of the highest quality.
The Bureau of Meteorology has been observing and reporting on weather in Australia for over 100 years, and CSIRO has been conducting atmospheric and marine research for over 60 years.

source Bureau of Meteorology

The El Niño event of 2009/10 has concluded, with all the major indicators now below El Niño thresholds. Latest observations show that sea surface temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness over the Pacific have all returned to levels considered typical of neutral (i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña) conditions. The timing of the decline in the 2009/10 El Niño event has been fairly typical, with the event peaking over summer then decaying during autumn.

The recent decrease in trade wind strength over the Pacific, which stalled the decay of the current El Niño event, appears to have ended.

Central Pacific sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long-term average.The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific continues to cool. The SOI has fallen slightly through March. The latest approximate 30-day value of the SOI is −12. Trade winds have strengthened in the equatorial Pacific. Cloudiness near the date-line has fluctuated through March.Most international computer models are predicting a return to neutral conditions during the southern hemisphere autumn.

More rainfall is expected in north-east NSW as remnants of Cyclone Laurence move east.

The “Next Generation Forecast and Warning System” is underpinned by a set of forecast weather element grids, quality controlled by forecasters, for time intervals out to 7 days ahead.  Each weather element, for each time, is stored in the Australian Digital Forecast Database on a high-resolution 6 kilometre by 6 kilometre square grid and maps are generated for display in the new Forecast Explorer web interface. The first state to use this system is Victoria’, where the Bureau has been operating and evaluating a demonstration weather forecasting system since October 2008. The government, in its 2009/10 budget has announced funding of $30.5 million over five years to roll this revolutionary system out across all states in Australia.