El Niño
The Bureau reports the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not been observed since the 2002 El Niño.
The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.
The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is −15; the monthly value for October was also −15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid fall in value through October.
Following a sustained weakening of the trade winds during October, a pulse of average or stronger than average trade winds is developing in the western Pacific.
Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.
Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern hemisphere summer.