El Niñ0 Update
The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not been observed since the 2002 El Niño.The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is −15; the monthly value for October was also −15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid fall in value through October.Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the western Pacific.Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern hemisphere summer.